Dec 8, 2014

How will my blog die? (Page Views)

How will your blog die? (Page Views)
For a layman, the number of visitors received by a blog is the foremost parameter on which a blog is measured, for a designer/ Developer too, the first priority is accentuating the number of visitors they receive.

Note. If you think you've missed the previous part, check out the 'When will my blog die?' study from the start.

However, what ensures a huge turnout on your website? Yes it is the search engine. Google's Page-rank is one of the few things that ensure a constant flow of readers towards the blog. However, if Google's bots do not find any changes in a website, the number of visitors would be stemmed. After all nobody at any search engine wants to direct users towards a month oldarticle if several recently updated ones exist (Remember the SEO basics). Hence when you stop posting articles on the blog, the number of new visitors on the blog will surely ebb and the blog will move towards death.

However, nothing can be said about your regular viewers or fans who would constantly check your website for weeks in the anticipation of newer content. But let’s face it, after some weeks of disappointment even the most regular of your fans would think twice. Such exercise (current study) if performed on the blog frequently, would lead to lowering of the said returning visitors.

The Study,

As seen in the chart below, one can easily deduce that the website in question is heading for a breakdown.

Change in number of Visitors with Time

No Change Zone

First comes the no change zone. Which in short is a 3 week zone where there exists no change in the number of visitors at the website. As is evident from the graph the cycle of visitors repeats twice in this period.

Reduction Zone

After 21 days of banality, the website heads towards the lower end showing signs of decline.

Deceleration Zone

After about 5 weeks, comes the final blow. The website accelerates towards a literal destruction in the form of reduced page views andreduced earnings. Things actually get really interesting here because you are not sure which way the website goes. This zone is very easily achieved in a "Popular at the moment blog" and very slowly achieved in a multilingual website.

When will the blog have no page views?

Since the blog could not be kept in a dry spell until it dies, one has only one option to find out the truth, i.e. to extrapolate from the present values. Such extrapolation would enable us to find the date at which the visitors would stop coming (with a tolerance of some days). The present graph follows a linear deterioration with the equation y = -2.611x + 461.5, which shows that after 177 days the visitors would stop adorning the blog and hence the blog would truly die.

The Complete Study

The Complete 5 Part Study can be accessed from here as it is published,

[Published on 8th Dec 2014]

[Published on 15th Dec 2014]

[Published on 22th Dec 2014]

[Published on 29th Dec 2014]

[Published on 19th Jan 2015]

This answered,
How will your blog die? (Page Views) MohitChar